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DOWNTOWN Fredericksburg narrowly escaped a flood Sunday. The Rappahan- nock River crested at 16 feet, two feet below flood stage.
People congregated to watch the power of a river that six months ago was so dry there was hardly any flow at all.
Dead trees as long as deep-sea fishing boats bobbed along in the high, fast-moving river. Large chunks of ice scoured from the wooded, muddy banks also sailed swiftly down a river that was the color of a cup of coffee with cream.
The river, meanwhile, literally roared through the rock-strewn corridor along Riverside Drive and Fall Hill Avenue. The swooshing sound made the river sound like something alive.
After 2:12 p.m., the river began slowly subsiding. There was no Flood of February 2003.
Sunday's close call did serve as a reminder that the river is an unpredictable force, however. That aspect of the river's duplicitous character must be kept in mind.
Last summer, the white-water portion of the Rappahannock almost dried up. Rainfall had been below normal for several years, so little replenishment occurred.
A primary source of drinking water for the region was reduced to a series of pools and puddles baking in the summer sun, so residents wondered how long it would be before their homes would have no water.
The region did not run dry, although that scenario is not beyond the realm of possibility. The significant precipitation that has fallen since September has not washed that concern away.
People realize the vagaries of the weather could result in an even more serious drought--especially as the region's population continues to increase.
Will there be enough water to handle the growth? Residents want elected officials to answer a key question: Will there be enough water to handle the growth? That question merits more intense scrutiny than it has received until now.
Floods, meanwhile, are natural. They have happened from time to time, and they will happen again.
The only reason there was not a flood this week is that daytime temperatures did not rise out of the 40s this past Friday, Saturday and Sunday.
Had temperatures gone into the upper 50s or into the 60s--as they sometimes do in February--the heavy rains Friday night and Saturday would have fallen on a landscape still covered with snow and ice from the unusually big storm the previous weekend. A quick melting, couple with heavy rain, could have sent the Rappahannock substantially higher.
Fredericksburg is at the fall line, a geographic feature designating a line of demarcation. It is where the white-water section of the river concludes its long "fall" down from the eastern slope of the Blue Ridge Mountains. From Fredericksburg downstream, the river is an ever-widening tidal estuary--a long finger of the Chesapeake Bay.
As I watched Sunday as the river roiled down through the rocky gorge between Fredericksburg and Falmouth, I thought about tracts of land upstream that in recent months have been cleared of trees.
The upper Rappahannock watershed includes the counties of Spotsylvania, Stafford, Culpeper, Orange, Fauquier, Madison and Rappahannock. While the latter two counties are still primarily woods and farms, much of the upper basin is an increasingly suburban landscape.
As large numbers of trees are removed from the suburbanizing "watershed," chances are greater that a flood will hit Fredericksburg. Trees and other vegetation slow the flow of water off the land, causing it to seep into the ground or gradually flow into creeks that feed the river.
A denuded landscape does not slow the flow of water running down to the river. Yet, little attention is paid to the issue.
LARRY EVANS can be reached at The Free Lance-Star, 616 Amelia St., Fredericksburg, Va. 22401; by fax at 373-8455; by phone at 374-5409; or by e-mail at levans@freelancestar.com.