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U.Va. analyst says Rothfeld will lose primary

State Sen. John Chichester should prevail in GOP primary, depending on voter turnout, professor predicts

By CHELYEN DAVIS

Date published: 5/30/2003

Incumbency, seniority and power are likely to ensure state Sen. John Chichester's victory in the June 10 primary, according to political analyst Larry Sabato.

Speaking to the Fredericksburg Rotary Club last night, Sabato, a professor at the University of Virginia, predicted that only low turnout--below 15 percent--will put Chichester in danger of losing his seat in the June 10 primary.

Chichester is being challenged by fellow Republican Mike Rothfeld, a Stafford political consultant.

But Chichester is president pro tempore of the Senate, he's the most senior Republican in the Senate, and he's chairman of the powerful Senate Finance Committee. He also works well with House Speaker Bill Howell, an old friend.

Add all of that up, Sabato said, and he puts Chichester as the safest of four incumbent Republicans facing primary challenges this year.

The danger for Chichester lies in Rothfeld's supporters, who can be counted on to show up at the polls.

In comments after his speech, Sabato said Rothfeld's showing in the 2000 Republican primary for the 1st District congressional seat --Rothfeld captured 22 percent of the vote--"means he can deliver the true believers.

"This is not a race to be taken for granted," Sabato said. "It's fatal if you take these things for granted."

Chichester was present at the Rotary Club meeting, as was Howell.

Howell has taped a campaign ad for Chichester, a move Sabato said may surprise some, given that Howell's House Republican caucus contains a number of conservatives like Rothfeld.

Sabato said Chichester is a conservative in the tradition of former governors Mills Godwin and John Dalton--a tradition of moderate conservatism that understood Virginia's progression as a state required a commitment to state needs and services, "even if sometimes you have to irritate the ideologues."

Sabato also noted that so far, no Democrat is running for the 28th District Senate seat.

That means the June 10 primary is the election, and Sabato urged audience members who want to have an impact to go to the polls, and bring friends with them.

As a political analyst, Sabato said, he doesn't endorse candidates and has to be nonpartisan.

But, he added, if "for some strange reason" district voters reject Chichester, he'd welcome the former senator in Charlottesville.

"We desperately need somebody with seniority and power and boy, does he have it," Sabato said.

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Date published: 5/30/2003