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The Fredericksburg area received a one-two punch of flooding courtesy of Hurricane Isabel. Tides on the lower Potomac and Rappahannock rivers swelled to 4 to 6 feet above normal, inundating parts of Colonial Beach and severely damaging some buildings.
The second punch is still to come: The Rappahannock is expected to crest slightly above flood stage early tomorrow.
Melody Paschetag, a hydrologist with the National Weather Service said yesterday that rainfall totals in the immediate area would total between 3 and 6 inches. The estimate was a little high--Fredericksburg received just under 3 inches.
As rain in the upper parts of the Rappahannock moves down stream there could be minor flooding. In Culpeper, the crest is expected at 6 p.m. today at 18.2 feet, which is 4.2 above flood stage. In Remington, it will crest at 19.3 feet, 4.3 feet above flood stage at 8 o'clock tonight.
The Rappahannock is expected to crest in Fredericksburg at 19.4 feet at 2 a.m. tomorrow. That's 1.4 feet above flood stage.
Flood stage is 18 feet in the city, the height at which water begins to enter riverfront buildings.
If that's the case, the crest would be way below that of Hurricane Fran. During the September 1996 storm, the Rappahannock crested at 26.9 feet, reaching into several blocks of Sophia Street and inundating River Road in Falmouth.
Fran dumped 3 to 5 inches of rain on Fredericksburg, and up to 11 inches in counties to the west. It took about two days for that wave of water to arrive here.
The storm was destructive, damaging more than 1,600 homes in 37 counties in western and southwestern Virginia, causing an estimated $230 million in damage. More than 400,000 homes and businesses were without electricity. Fran claimed seven lives.
Some residents in low-lying areas of Fredericksburg were taking no chances yesterday afternoon, loading up belongings and heading for higher ground.
In June 1972, Hurricane Agnes dumped 6 inches here and up to 9 inches west of the city. The river crested at 39.1 feet.
Still, the flooding from Isabel could be enhanced because of precipitation already this year. Having rain on top of rain raises the stakes, said Wendy McPherson of the U.S. Geological Survey office in Baltimore.
"We've had some of the highest groundwater levels in 40 years and stream flow above normal for months," she said. Streams and rivers from Massachusetts to Virginia are running at near-historically high levels for this time of year. (For more details, see the USGS WaterWatch Web site at water.usgs.gov/waterwatch).
Since Jan. 1, Fredericksburg has received 37.7 inches of rain, including 2.79 inches from Isabel. Average annual rainfall here is 40.85 inches.
Jason Spicer, chief operator at the Fredericksburg sewage treatment plant, where the city's rain gauge is located, said 2.79 inches might be a little low.
"I don't think that's all the rain we had, the way [the wind] was blowing," he said. "It's hard for the rain gauge to catch it when it's blowing sideways."
Besides property damage, flooding on the Rappahannock and Potomac bring other unwelcome spinoffs--erosion and pollution.
"After the floods of '95 and '96, the Rapidan and some of its tributaries looked like teams of bulldozers went down the riverside," said John Tippett, executive director of Friends of the Rappahannock.
That erosion means more sediment in the water, which stunts the growth of aquatic plants and marine animals such as oysters and clams.
Another potential problem is sewage treatment plants, whose processing of wastewater is less efficient in high water.
Wilbur Brown, manager of the Fredericksburg sewage treatment plant, said thanks to advance warning about the storm, the plant has taken steps to reduce the untreated sewage that could reach the river.
Andi Markley, research librarian, contributed to this story.
To reach RUSTY DENNEN: 374-5431 rdennen@freelancestar.com