WITH NEARLY 40 new shows debuting this fall, the best thing that can be said is that there are 14 shows that show real promise.

The worst is that there are nearly 20 that appear to be either mediocre or flat-out bad.

There's only one I'd go out on a limb and call a good bet to be a new hit.

Family comedies and all different manner of cop and investigative shows make up the bulk of this fall's new offerings, with only a few shows offered that try to break the well-worn sitcom molds.

Though at this point it's a real guessing game, it's possible to handicap the new shows using early buzz, the cast and premise of the new offerings.

I'll put them all in four basic categories: "Best Bet," "Has Promise," "Mediocre" and "Ugh!"

Today, I'll go through the first two categories, back next week with the other two.

Best Bet

In past years, this category would have been plural.

But there are enough question marks about most of the new offerings to keep that from happening.

The one that seems most likely to carve out a regular time slot comes from CBS: "Navy NCIS."

Starring TV vet and likable actor Mark Harmon, last seen getting gunned down as a Secret Service agent on "West Wing," this is a show spun off from the CBS staple "JAG" that combines the Navy action with the forensic investigative interest from the hit "CSI."

Has Promise

"All About the Andersons" on WB has the talented Anthony Anderson, the still grouchy John Amos (the father from "Good Times") and a barbershop backdrop that worked well for the movie Anderson also starred in.

"Arrested Development" on Fox has one of those premises that can either be a blessing or a curse.

Jason Bateman stars as a young man whose hopes for a normal life are challenged when his father (Jeffrey Tambor) leaves the family business--to go to jail.

Bateman is said to be solid and Tambor is always a hoot. Like all sitcoms, this one will sink or swim on its writing.

"The Brotherhood of Poland, N.H.," with Randy Quaid on CBS.