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Six months out

The presidential race is a dead heat. Is it Kerry's to lose?

Date published: 5/20/2004

Neck and neck in the race for the White House

IN HALF A YEAR, the United States will elect a president. How goes the campaign?

The latest polls indicate the race is a dead heat. The division in America 150 years ago was blue and gray; today, it's blue and red. Observers say President Bush leads in 24 "red" states with a total of 205 electoral votes. Fourteen "blue" states, also controlling 205 electoral votes, lean toward Sen. John Kerry. The remaining 12 states and their 128 votes are up for grabs. Of particular interest are the races in Florida, Ohio, and Arizona.

Worth noting--the great polarization that characterizes this election. Pollster John Zogby says that only 5 percent of the electorate is undecided at a time in the campaign when 20 percent to 25 percent usually are. Voters who might switch their allegiances--the "soft vote"--make up an all-time low of 10 percent. In fact, says Mr. Zogby, because of his relative popularity against an incumbent at this stage of the race, the election is Mr. Kerry's to lose. The presumptive Democratic candidate's abilities or inabilities as a campaigner from here to November will make or break him.

Not all observers agree. But if Mr. Zogby is correct, Mr. Kerry has makeup work to do, for he has yet to present clear and compelling reasons to vote for him other than his identification as the "anti-Bush" candidate. In fact, Mr. Kerry's equivocation has muddled his campaign, bogging it down badly at a time when clarity could have caused it to surge ahead.

After returning from Vietnam, he threw his medals away. Or he didn't. He threw someone else's away. Or it was his ribbons. The story is unclear. Along with his sidekick, Sen. Ted Kennedy, Mr. Kerry supported the No Child Left Behind Act in December 2001, but disdained it in April 2003. Is he in favor of the Patriot Act, which he voted for, or against it, as he said in December? Does he own an SUV, or is it "just" his wife's? What about outsourcing, and NAFTA, and affirmative action the list of issues upon which Mr. Kerry has waffled would fill an IHOP menu.

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Date published: 5/20/2004