View the Caroline County community page

GOP victory a big shift for Caroline

Bush's win in Caroline is first GOP win there in a presidential race since 1972. Observers say the once-Democratic stronghold is starting to lean right.

By ROB DAVIS

Date published: 11/4/2004

In the late 1970s, Caroline County's Republican Committee convened a mass meeting of GOP supporters.

Three people showed up: then-Chairman Frank Benser, the vice chairman and the treasurer.

"The secretary forgot about it," Benser explained.

Since 1972, the county has been a lock to vote for Democratic presidential candidates every four years. But representatives from both parties as well as independent observers say the tide is turning.

A majority of Caroline voters supported President Bush on Tuesday, the first time the county went to the GOP in a presidential race since incumbent Richard Nixon eked out a 200-vote win over George McGovern there in 1972.

Democrats and Republicans agree the county's growth and changing demographics were a major factor in Bush's 120-vote win over John Kerry in the county.

Suburban growth has shrunk the potency of the county's once-dominant black Democratic electorate, said Benser, mayor of Bowling Green and chairman of the county's Republican committee from 1976 to 1988.

But Benser said he was surprised at Bush's victory in Caroline. He hadn't expected enough growth to fuel a Republican win there for another four years.

The county has added 1,000 residents since the last presidential election, and subdivisions expected to produce another 10,000 homes are advancing.

"You're looking at the Fairfaxing of Caroline," said Stephen Farnsworth, associate professor of political science at the University of Mary Washington. "That's going to dramatically change the politics of Caroline in the same way it's changed the politics of one county after another, all the way down I-95 from Washington."

But there are other factors in Tuesday's vote, Farnsworth said, including Kerry's failure to win over Southern voters.

Though the campaign focused on the war on terror, job losses and Iraq, Farnsworth said exit polls showed one in five voters cited value issues such as gay marriage as their chief concern.

"Bush won those people overwhelmingly," Farnsworth said, "and he won them in places like Caroline."

Democrats still dominate at the local level in Caroline. Circuit Clerk Ray Campbell Jr. is the lone Republican to hold a county office. Only two Republicans ran in local races last November; neither won.

But the county's Republican Committee has been increasingly active, said Del. Bobby Orrock, a Republican whose district includes Caroline.

"The question is: What will the next step be?" Orrock asked. "Will it cause the Democratic Committee to get more energized in subsequent elections?"

Jack Wilcox, chairman of Caroline's Democratic Committee, said he expects continuing growth to fuel the GOP's ascendance in the county.

"I absolutely see it coming," he said. "And my Democratic elected officials just seem to be blind to that and refusing to build a serious base. It's only a matter of time."

Staff librarian Craig Schulin contributed to this story.

To reach ROB DAVIS: 540/374-5418 rdavis@freelancestar.com

Follow us on

Read more stories about Caroline
Date published: 11/4/2004