Bush margin mystifies Virginia Democrats

What happened to that huge turnout that the pundits predicted?

By CHELYEN DAVIS

Date published: 11/4/2004

Despite huge effort, voter turnout same as in 2000

RICHMOND--Virginia's support of President Bush in Tuesday's election surprised no one.

What was surprising was the margin by which Bush won Virginia, and the lower-than-expected voter turnout.

Democrats and pollsters had predicted Bush's margin in Virginia would be close, but it turned out to be 9 percentage points.

"Governor Warner boasted that it would be closer than anyone expected. Welcome to the world of misprognostication, Governor," said University of Virginia political analyst Larry Sabato. "It was a very impressive Bush victory in Virginia. Without Ralph Nader on the ballot to drain votes from Kerry, [Bush] won by 10 to 11 points instead of the 8 points of 2000.

"So all of that organization by Democrats in Virginia proved to be mainly talk. And they were very good at talking. I salute them for their spin. But as it turned out, nothing much has changed from 2000."

Laura Bland, spokeswoman for the Democratic Party of Virginia, said she really couldn't explain why Kerry did worse than expected in the state.

"Do I understand why John Kerry didn't do better in Virginia? Not really. That's a question that's probably better left for analysts and people who prognosticate," Bland said. "Ultimately, our job here at the Democratic Party of Virginia was to support John Kerry and to make sure that we identified as many likely Kerry voters as we could here in Virginia, and we got them out on Election Day.

"And we worked really hard at that process, at that effort, and we still today feel very good about the effort that we made here in Virginia for John Kerry. We didn't roll over, we didn't give up, in the face of so many people who said why bother."

However, despite the efforts of both parties, a huge surge in voter registration immediately before the deadline in October, and long lines in some polling places Tuesday, voter turnout was 68.5 percent--the same as in 2000.

State elections secretary Jean Jenson is at a loss to explain that, especially given anecdotal evidence of the floods of voters at polling places.

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Date published: 11/4/2004