WASHINGTON--Sen. George Allen was trying to handshake his way out the door of his crowded pre-inauguration reception in Washington Thursday when a reporter popped the question: Is Allen contemplating a run for president in 2008?
The supporters around the Virginia Republican cheered.
They, at least, would like to see a President Allen. And the man himself isn't saying no, choosing instead to play it coy.
"It is nice to have so many nice folks encouraging that," he said, breaking free of the crowd and sweeping down the hall of the Russell Senate Office Building, trying to make it to the inauguration on time. "Susan would be a wonderful first lady, but first things first--re-election in 2006."
Speculation has swirled for a while now that Allen would like to attend the next presidential inauguration not as a senator, but as the president-elect himself.
Allen can partly thank his appointment as chairman of the National Senatorial Campaign Committee for putting his name into the 2008 hat.
He spent the past two years working to elect Republican senators, and he has raised a lot of money and made national connections doing so. His efforts helped unseat Senate Minority Leader Tom Daschle of South Dakota, a major feather in Allen's hat.
"The single biggest advantage that George Allen has is the very successful tenure he had running the Republican Senatorial Campaign Committee," said University of Mary Washington political science professor Stephen Farnsworth. "The Republicans had a great year in 2004 in those Senate seats, particularly in the South. So Allen has picked up some IOUs, and his resume is the sort of resume that can work pretty well in a presidential campaign."
Farnsworth said Allen's resume would make him an appealing candidate. He's served in Congress and the Senate and been governor of a Southern state.
Bill Wood, executive director of the Sorensen Institute for Political Leadership at the University of Virginia, said Allen has a nonthreatening, folksy persona that appeals to people.
But others might be more attractive.
If the 2008 nomination field is crowded with candidates similar to Allen--other governors, or other Southerners--his advantages decrease. Farnsworth thinks a possible run by Florida governor and presidential brother Jeb Bush would knock Allen out of the water.
"It strikes me that Senator Allen is doing the right things to position himself. But as other Republicans have found to their frustration, it's hard to beat a Bush," Farnsworth said.
He added that the primary calendar, with Iowa and New Hampshire as early indicators, is not historically friendly to Southerners.
"There are a lot of people who have backgrounds similar to Allen. It may be a very difficult road," Farnsworth said. "There's no question Allen would be on the long list of potential Republican nominees. But to make it to the short list, that's going to be a very difficult process."
Staff changes Allen has made since the November elections have served to further fuel the speculation about 2008. Longtime aide Jay Timmons left, and Allen replaced him with Dick Wadhams, a veteran political operative who ran the campaign of John Thune, who defeated Daschle in November. Wadhams' hiring suggests to observers that Allen is at least considering a 2008 run.
"He's building kind of a second staff, so that indicates one of two things. Either he thinks he needs to gear up more for the 2006 election or he's looking to higher honors than that," Wood said. "I don't think either the Democrats or the Republicans have somebody out there now who is the obvious choice for president, so I think you'd have to include Allen in a broad number of people who might run for president."
But if Allen does indeed want to be at the top of a national ticket in 2008, the 2006 race could make him or break him.
"If he's bloodied or wounded, if it's close in 2006, it diminishes his chances," Farnsworth said. "If it looks like he has trouble winning Virginia, that's not going to impress money people in the Republican Party, and that's going to be his biggest problem."
Gov. Mark Warner, a Democrat, is the man most often mentioned as a challenger for Allen in 2006. Warner's tenure as governor will be done by then, although Warner, too, has been mentioned as a possible candidate for president in 2008. There's even a DraftMark Warner.com Web site.
Warner has been noncommittal, too, about his future. He says he just wants a successful last year as governor.
About Warner, Allen would say only that he would be a "formidable opponent" and that he'll be prepared for whoever runs against him.
To reach CHELYEN DAVIS: 804/782-9362 cdavis@freelancestar.com