Outlying counties hold lead on growth
New census estimates show population increase continuing to slow in Stafford and Spotsylvania, but outlying counties replacing them as growth leaders
BY DAN TELVOCK
Date published: 3/20/2008
BY DAN TELVOCK
New census numbers show Spotsylvania and Stafford counties getting a handle on their exploding populations, but outlying areas such as King George, Culpeper and Caroline continue to be among the state's growth leaders.
When Spotsylvania and Stafford were perennially among the nation's fastest-growing counties earlier this decade, officials set goals of reducing their growth rates to 2 percent.
The new population estimates show that both counties have met that goal. From 2006-07, Stafford saw a 2 percent population increase; Spotsylvania had a 1.2 percent increase.
Stafford's growth rate was roughly the same from 2005-06. Spotsylvania's was 2.8 percent.
In the latest numbers, King George ranks second in Virginia, behind Loudoun County, with a 4.6 percent increase from 2006 to 2007. Culpeper was fourth, at 3.5 percent. Caroline, Orange and Louisa ranked seventh through ninth. In the 2005-06 census estimates, King George, Culpeper, Caroline and Orange ranked first through fourth.
Spotsylvania County Administrator Randy Wheeler said he expects the county's growth rate to remain the same through 2008.
"I don't think we are looking for things to decline further," he said. "But obviously there are a lot of changes in the economy that may impact that."
The director of demographic and work force section at the Weldon Cooper Center at University of Virginia, Qian Cai, said the economic downturn has slowed growth in the state overall.
"I would say it is predominantly an economic situation that determines the population change," she said. "If the economy is good and employment opportunities are abundant, then people move to the area, and as a result you see the growth."
Dan Telvock: 540/374-5438
Email: dtelvock@freelancestar.com
CAROLINE
Planning Director Michael Finchum said construction has slowed in Caroline, but hasn't stopped. The county is issuing only about 45 percent of the permits than it did at the market's peak more than two years ago.
"I suspect it will still be a while before we see a significant turnaround in the housing market," Finchum said.
While the county is about to open a new elementary school to accommodate growth, the slow down has given Caroline time to regroup.
Finchum said a utility system expansion is still under way, but other projects were scaled down.
"We were under pressure due to the rapid rate of growth--some of that's dissipated," he said.
--Corey Byers |
CULPEPER
Despite its high ranking, Culpeper's growth slowed in 2006 continues to fall.
"We are back to pre-2000 growth levels," said County Administrator Frank Bossio.
For six years, however, newcomers created a seemingly insatiable demand for housing and government services. Two new schools were built and a western bypass around the town of Culpeper was planned to handle traffic.
Now, with new houses sitting empty, the county faces a $4 million revenue shortfall that threatens to stop two new schools from opening next fall. School enrollment was projected to increase by some 400 students this year, but is actually down by about 100, school Superintendent David Cox said.
--Donnie Johnston
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ORANGE
Strategic Planning Director Deborah Kendall said building permits in Orange County fell from 40 in January 2007 to an "astonishingly low" 16 this past January. But she expects a rebound this spring.
While Community Development Director David Grover questioned the accuracy of the latest numbers, Kendall said she thinks the county will maintain a 3 percent rate. "In the grand scheme of things, it's still cheaper to live here," she said.
The county's comprehensive plan calls for a 2 percent annual growth rate and some residents want to cap government services to prevent any residential growth.
A middle school is in the works and more school construction is expected in the near future.
--Robin Knepper |
FREDERICKSBURG
The city doesn't have a lot of large tracts of empty land, but that doesn't mean growth will stop. Senior City Planner Erik Nelson said transportation plans are being based on models that show Fredericksburg could grow to 26,817 by 2025.
Idlewild and other subdivisions continue to build out. The 78-acre Shannon Estate off Cowan Boulevard next to Interstate 95 is currently zoned to allow two homes per acre. The developer who bought the land has not announced plans, but city officials have gotten indications that at least some residential component is being contemplated.
In addition, the Economic Development Authority's JumpStart plan calls for higher-density residential development along some major city corridors.
--Emily Battle
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SPOTSYLVANIA
Supervisor Gary Jackson started the push to slow county growth in 2000. Two years later, Spotsylvania amended its land-use plan to set a goal of 2 percent population growth a year while bringing in more commercial activity.
Those goals have been met, and Jackson expects a national economic downturn to keep residential growth slow "for the foreseeable future."
The increase in retail development has allowed the county to maintain relatively stable real-estate tax rates while spending more on essential services such as public safety and education, Jackson said. And the land-use plan has also brought in millions of dollars in proffers from developers that have helped fund road improvements in the county.
--Dan Telvock
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STAFFORD
County officials attribute the slow growth rate to the sluggish economy and housing market slump. While supervisors have not enacted specific policies to stunt growth, they have tried to manage it better.
For example, they passed a Traditional Neighborhood Development ordinance that allows for mixed-use, compact development.
Enrollment declines in Stafford schools are evidence of the growth slowdown. A new middle school in Widewater was originally planned to alleviate overcrowding at four other middle schools, but by the time it was built, the slowing enrollment had reduced the need for it. The School Board ultimately voted to open the school this fall.
--Kafia Hosh
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KING GEORGE
County Administrator Bryan David noted that the latest statistics look at rates of change a year ago, rather than today's market, and that the real-estate market is in a down cycle.
But he said he expects the number of building permits to go up in King George when the market rebounds. "Cumulatively there's still a lot of subdivisions still in the pipeline that are trying to get final plat approval," he said.
While the county population is still small, David said growth is having an impact. King George expects to open a new high school next fall to help with higher enrollment.
"The pressures are just as acute for King George County as they are for Loudoun County," he said. "It's just a different scale that we're dealing with."
--Corey Byers
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HOW DO THEY STACK UP?
How area localities stack up in new state growth rankings:
King George 4.6%
Culpeper 3.5%
Caroline 3.1%
Orange 3.0%
Stafford 2.0%
Fredericksburg 2.0%
Spotsylvania 1.2% |
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Date published: 3/20/2008
Most recent reader comments:
mbarker..........
(posted by
USA2007
, Mar. 20, 2008 2:28 pm)
i am talking about Stafford schools NOT KG schools. Sorry I didnt specify. Watch the meetings somtimes it is real comical under the chairmanship of Mrs Healy, who is married to CLark Leming and they have a land use law firm that represents all the big land developers in Stafford.
outlying counties on growth
(posted by
bucks
, Mar. 20, 2008 12:55 pm)
Spotsy. and Stafford watch out. Taxes, traffic are pushing people out. School pop. will continue to decline. Watch out K.G., Orange, Caroline, Culpeper. Do you want the same problems as us? You still have some beautiful open land, preserve it, don't turn it into what we in Spotsy. look at every day. Sad, very sad.
kg enrollment up 181 this year
(posted by
mbarker12474
, Mar. 20, 2008 12:47 pm)
Here are September 30 student enrollments for King George County schools for the last several years:
3,982 2007 + 181
3,801 2006 + 230
3,571 2005 + 222
3,349 2004 + 147
3,202 2003 + 154
3,048 2002
new school will be full
(posted by
mbarker12474
, Mar. 20, 2008 11:35 am)
A partially used new high school? I don't think so. It'll be full on day one. My bet is on trailers hauled in to hold students in year two because too much was cut from the new high school building.
KG is one of the faster growing counties in the nation.
MB
slow growth and student enrollments
(posted by
USA2007
, Mar. 20, 2008 6:07 am)
ARE DOWN.. but opened the school anyway.....why didnt someone think to delay opening it.. Oh wait that was tried. Hear that sucking noise??? Its money out of the taxpayers wallets to pay for a NEW partally used school building.
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