BY DAVE GOLDBERG

AP Football Writer

NEW YORK

That was just the way most mock drafts had them, all four assumed to be future stars.

Six years later, Carr is a backup QB with the Giants, his third team; Harrington also is on his third team; and Williams is out of the NFL. Even Peppers, a star early, has had back-to-back bad seasons, and his former North Carolina teammate, defensive tackle Ryan Sims, taken sixth by Kansas City, is another major failure.

If the draft has become the NFL's second-most anticipated event after the Super Bowl, it's also one in which many "future Hall of Famers" turn out to be duds. These days, the increasing number of people writing, reporting and blogging about the NFL turn out mock draft after mock draft, some starting as early as the week after the Super Bowl.

Nor does analysis stop after the draft. Every team is graded instantly. The results are haphazard, of course--no one can analyze a draft the day it happens, including the people doing the drafting.

"We're giving these guys grades and they haven't even taken any classes or exams yet," laughs Bill Polian, the president of the Colts, whose success rate is as good as anyone's in nearly a quarter century with Buffalo, Carolina and Indianapolis.

The current example is the New York Giants, whose surprise run to a title last season probably wouldn't have happened without the rookies. Seven made significant contributions in the playoffs, including running back Ahmad Bradshaw, the 250th of 255 players chosen.

Yet they were ranked at the bottom in many post-draft "report cards" issued immediately after last year's selections.

"We just did what we always do, evaluate everything our scouts and coaches tell us, then put it together and make a choice," says Jerry Reese, who last year wore two hats: rookie general manager and in his old job as player personnel director.

"It came out well, but there's no guarantee that the same thing will happen again. All we can do is try our best."