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ITHINK ANYONE with even a vague knowledge of national politics understands that the Democrats have a decided advantage in this year's presidential election.
Eight years of George Bush and Dick Cheney has put everyone except the most ultra-conservative Republicans crying for change.
That's understandable, considering the fact that we are locked in two wars--one extremely unpopular--are suffering through some of the worst economic times since the Great Depression and are watching the Russians start kicking up their heels again.
Given those parameters, you would think that Democrat Barack Obama, who has already charmed most of the free world, could not possibly lose to Republican John McCain, who has the personality of a wet dishrag.
Don't bet on it! If there is a way to lose this race, the Democrats will find it.
And the fatal blow may come today or tomorrow when Obama announces his vice-presidential running mate.
It is hard to understate just how crucial Obama's choice is going to be to the Democrat's success. Pick the right person and the junior senator from Illinois could run away with the race. Select the wrong person and McCain will be sitting in the White House come Jan. 20.
Before we proceed any further it should be noted that McCain's choice for vice president won't amount to two hoots in hell to anybody. Democrats are not going to support him no matter what and hard-line Republicans will vote for their party's ticket if road kill is placed on the ballot.
On the Democratic side, however, it is a different matter.
The "experts" have narrowed Obama's possible running mates down to about three people--Indiana Sen. Evan Bayh, Delaware Sen. Joe Biden and Virginia Gov. Tim Kaine are thought to be at the top of the list.
That leaves out the most obvious choice, New York Sen. Hillary Clinton.
COURTING WOMEN VOTERS
The argument for Kaine is that both parties view Virginia as a strategic state, and what better way for Democrats to change the commonwealth color from red to blue than by selecting its popular governor as the No. 2 man on the ticket?
Perhaps Kaine could also help swing some other Southern states.
Perhaps.
But Kaine could not come close to doing for Obama's campaign what Clinton could. Choosing the New York senator could seal the deal for the Democrats in 2008.
Yes, I know that there are Republicans out there who say they would vote for the devil before they would vote for a ticket with Hillary Clinton on it.
If this is what is holding Obama back, I've got news for him: These people are not going to vote for a Democrat under any circumstances.
Others contend that a black man and a woman on the same ticket could constitute too much change. I don't buy that. After eight years of Bush and Cheney, we need all the change we can get.
Obama had better also understand that just because Hillary Clinton asks her supporters to vote for him, that doesn't mean they will. There were millions of women who registered for the first time and went to the primaries just to vote for a woman.
I don't believe that all those female Clinton supporters will show up at the polls in November. There go votes that no one will get--and almost all are Democratic.
I still hear voters growling that they might not even go to the polls this year because they don't like either candidate. A low turnout would diminish Obama's chances significantly.
But you can bet your booty that the Republicans will be out in force on Election Day.
A HO-HUM TICKET?
Polls are already starting to reflect the Democrats' loss of enthusiasm. On Wednesday, a Reuters/Zogby poll put McCain, who admitted several weeks ago that he was the underdog, with a five-point lead.
Sound familiar? It should. Clinton reportedly had a big lead over Obama for the longest time.
I have learned that there are two things you can never predict--how an election is going to turn out and what a jury is going to do.
Before a jury gets a case or the voters prepare to decide an election, you'd better make sure you've done everything possible to swing the momentum to your side.
Obama and any male vice-presidential nominee he might choose will be just another "ho-hum" ballot.
November's election will then boil down to two men running against two other men, the status quo for the past 200 years. Hillary Clinton's attempt to move a woman closer to the presidency will have gone for naught. Why wouldn't female voters be apathetic?
I have serious doubts that Obama and a male running mate can beat McCain and the diehard Republicans.
I think Obama and Clinton can.
And as for Tim Kaine, well, he's a good guy and he may well help the Democrats get Virginia's 13 electoral votes.
But, then, 13 is an unlucky number.
Donnie Johnston:
Email: djohnston@freelancestar.com
