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Democratic presidential nominee Barack Obama
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RICHMOND--
Back in January, University of Virginia political analyst Larry Sabato predicted that Virginia would be a battleground state in this year's presidential election.It turns out that not only was he right, but the battle appears set to continue right down to Election Day.
A Mason-Dixon poll last week showed Democrat Barack Obama with a narrow 2 percentage-point lead over Republican John McCain. That's within the margin of polling error.
But other polls in recent weeks have showed Obama with a wider lead, up to 10 percentage points; they come after polls showed a McCain lead late in the summer.
Sabato believes the race is tight in Virginia.
"There have been so many surveys with Obama well ahead that it's not unreasonable to think he's leading by at least a few points," he said. "[But] I don't know anybody who's nonpartisan who believes Obama could win Virginia by 10 points."
That a Democratic presidential candidate would be leading in the polls--or even holding his own against the Republican--was unthinkable for most people just a few months ago. As probably every Virginia voter knows by now, the state hasn't supported a Democrat for president since Lyndon Johnson. That was 44 years ago.
But neither candidate is taking Virginia for granted now. Candidates have crisscrossed the state, which has seen a historic number of new voter registrations. Voters seem to be as enthusiastic about their new status as a swing state as the campaigns are about winning them over.
"We're getting more attention than just about anybody, in Virginia," said George Mason University political analyst Stephen Farnsworth. "That suggests to me that the internal numbers in the campaigns do not show the same 10-point gap that some of the other polls are showing. If there were really a 10-point gap, it seems their resources might be better spent elsewhere."
Farnsworth and Sabato said that while Obama has put a lot of effort into winning Virginia, it's McCain who must win here.
STATE 'ESSENTIAL' TO McCAIN
"Obama doesn't even need Virginia's electoral votes. It's McCain who finds them absolutely essential," Sabato said. "He has almost no margin for error. The blue states are staying blue, and seven or eight red states have already gone over toward Obama."
Farnsworth agreed; he said that Obama can probably count on winning the states won by John Kerry in the 2004 election, leaving him free to focus his campaign and money on winning votes in states that supported Bush in 2004.
"The McCain campaign has a terrible problem--they're outgunned everywhere," Farnsworth said. "In some of these swing states you're looking at 4-to-1 disparities in spending. So the McCain campaign has to defend all of these states that Bush won four years ago. If you spend more money, you're more likely to
Electoral math at the moment shows that McCain must win all the states Bush won to win the election; if Obama can pick off one or two of those states, he's the winner.
Of course, all those polls measure only a snapshot, a promise from voters on the phone that they'll go to their voting places and pull a lever. Polls can't promise actual voter turnout, and, by all accounts, part of Obama's support in Virginia comes from young voters whose attendance at the precinct has yet to be tested.
Then again, changing demographics and new voters have been instrumental in helping Democrats win three statewide races in recent years--Gov. Mark Warner, Gov. Tim Kaine and Sen. Jim Webb.
Virginia may be trending bluer, but it's certainly not a reliably Democratic state. George Bush won here in 2004 with 54 percent of the vote, an 8-point lead, the same spread he had in 2000. Gov. Kaine, a longtime Obama supporter, told attendees at an Obama rally here last week that they should consider their candidate the underdog, despite the polls.
The polls and analysts suggest that Obama's slight lead comes because he has worked harder here, and McCain's campaign has made some stumbles.
Obama has also benefited from the voters' focus on the economy. Many voters blame the incumbent White House occupant and his party for the problems.
"The best thing that McCain had going for him in Virginia is his character. A state intimately tied with the military is a place where someone with McCain's resume can do very well," Farnsworth said. "After he won the primary, Virginia was his to win in the general. McCain has suffered for things that weren't entirely his fault."
But some things are his fault. Sabato said McCain and his surrogates have made missteps that have certainly not helped them in Virginia.
"They ignored the reality that Virginia was a competitive state in the spring and summer. They barely had McCain and Palin here," Sabato said
He also cited gaffes by McCain's brother, who called Alexandria and Arlington "communist country"; a McCain aide who said Northern Virginia wasn't the "real Virginia"; and Virginia GOP Chairman Jeff Frederick's comparison of Obama to Osama bin Laden.
"You put all that together, and it's as if the McCain campaign has a death wish in Virginia," Sabato said. It's real tough to win somebody's vote when you're insulting them."
Chelyen Davis: 804/782-9362
Email: cdavis@freelancestar.com
| WILL CULPEPER SHIFT DEMOCRATIC?
Culpeper County, a GOP stronghold for more than 30 years, will test its Republican resolve in 2008. That became evident several months ago when fewer than a dozen people--including the media--showed up for a rally for Republican U.S. Senate hopeful Jim Gilmore. Around the county, signs for Democrat Barack Obama far outnumber those supporting Republican John McCain. Two years ago, Culpeper voted Republican in the governor's race, but the margin was far slimmer than in the past. According to county Registrar Michelle White, voter registration is up dramatically this year. "We've topped 27,000 for the first time ever," White said. That number is about 3,000 higher than in the last presidential election. White added that she is handing out a record number of absentee ballots. --Donnie Johnston |
| STAFFORD HAS BEEN A GOP BASTION
On the state and federal levels, Stafford County has long been Republican. Voters supported Jerry Kilgore for governor over Tim Kaine in 2005 and George Allen in the 2006 Senate race against Jim Webb. Democrats last eked out a presidential victory in the county in 1976, when Jimmy Carter earned 79 more votes than Gerald Ford. Locally, party affiliation has gained new relevance on the Board of Supervisors. Three Republicans, three Democrats and one independent have split along party lines on a number "I don't think people in this area are particularly crazy about party politics at the local level," Stafford County Republican Committee Chairman Susan Stimpson said. "Most people here want smart government
Stafford now has approximately 75,000 registered voters--an increase of nearly 11 percent since the beginning of 2008. --Jonas Beals |
| ORANGE LIKELY TO REMAIN REPUBLICAN
Although neighboring counties voted for Democrat Lyndon Johnson in 1964, Orange County was a Republican holdout. And it has voted for the GOP in every presidential election since. That's not expected to change this year. Doug Rogers, chairman of Orange's Republican committee, predicts McCain will win the county with 56 percent to 61 percent of the vote. Nevertheless, Barack Obama's candidacy has generated excitement. The county has seen an 8 percent increase in registered voters, a lot of them young people and older black residents, according to election officials. The Lake of the Woods Democratic Women's Club has given out more than 200 Obama yard signs, There is an active Obama campaign office in the town of Orange, where volunteers young and old "have been energetic, eager to help and very generous with their time," according to volunteer Janet Faulconer, Yet even with that excitement, Democratic Electoral Board member Marty Caldwell expressed the prevailing sentiment: "It looks like Virginia will go Democratic," she said, "but I would be surprised to see Obama carry Orange County." --Robin Knepper |
| CAROLINE RELIABLE FOR DEMOCRATS
Historically, Democratic presidential candidates have fared well in Caroline County. More voters chose Democrats in nine of the past 11 elections. However, Republican President George Bush won the state, and Caroline, in his 2004 re-election. The blue trend applies In the 2001 governor's race, Democrat Mark Warner took Caroline with 60 percent of the vote. Democratic Gov. Tim Kaine beat out Republican rival Jerry Kilgore in 2005, and Sen. Jim Webb narrowly beat former Gov. George Allen two years ago. County Registrar Danette Moen said there are 1,800 newly registered voters in Caroline this year. She added that groups conducting voter registration drives brought in "quite a few" voter applications. --Corey Byers |
| DEMOCRATS ARE SCARCE IN FAUQUIER
Fauquier County has voted solidly Republican for its state and federal representatives in recent years. As in Virginia as a whole, the last Democratic presidential candidate Fauquier County voters supported was Lyndon Johnson. This year Bill Day, who lives Day, a Democrat, ran unsuccessfully against Scott Lingamfelter for the 31st District House of Delegates seat in 2007. Although Day won --Emily Battle |
| KING GEORGE USUALLY HAS HIGH TURNOUT
In the 2004 presidential election, 75 percent of voters in King George County turned out to cast their ballots. That number beat the County Registrar Lorrie Gump said there are 1,736 more people registered to vote this year than last year, calling it an "amazing" number for a county of King George's size. "I think any presidential election is going to bring more people out than King George voters have chosen Republicans in nine of the past 11 presidential elections. In three other recent elections the majority of voters also leaned Republican, choosing George Allen in the 2006 Senate race and Jerry Kilgore and Mark Earley in the 2005 and 2001 gubernatorial races, respectively. --Corey Byers |
| SPOTSYLVANIA HAS BEEN REPUBLICAN STRONGHOLD
When it comes to presidential elections, Spotsylvania County Since 1980, Spotsylvania voters have picked the GOP candidate by an overwhelming majority. There were seven presidential elections in that timeframe, and only twice has a Republican lost, both times to Bill Clinton. In the last three key statewide races, GOP candidates won in Spotsylvania but lost statewide. For this upcoming presidential election, Spotsylvania has 74,687 registered voters, a 10.2 percent increase. --Dan Telvock
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| FREDERICKSBURG HAS TRADITIONALLY VOTED DEMOCRATIC
In sharp contrast to their neighbors, Fredericksburg voters haven't voted for a Republican presidential candidate since George H.W. Bush won the city in 1988. Fredericksburg voted for Democratic Gov. Tim Kaine in 2005, and also for members of Kaine's party on the statewide ticket--Democrats Leslie Byrne and Creigh Deeds. City voters also supported Democratic Sen. Jim Webb over Republican George Allen in 2006. Fredericksburg's voter rolls have grown faster than those of all but six Virginia localities since the beginning of this year. Since January, the city's voter rolls --Emily Battle |
| LOUISA HAS LIKED GOP RECENTLY
Louisa County has supported a Democrat for president more recently than Virginia as a whole. County voters supported Jimmy Carter in 1976 and in 1980. Louisa supported all of the Republicans on the statewide ticket with Jerry Kilgore in the 2005 gubernatorial election. The county has added 1,509 new voters--7.5 percent of the total registered in the county--since January. --Emily Battle |
| WESTMORELAND MAY BE ELECTION TOSSUP
Westmoreland County could vote either way in the upcoming presidential election. The last time the county went for a Democratic presidential candidate was in 1996, when Bill Clinton outpolled Bob Dole. George W. Bush won the county in 2000 and 2004 by a combined total of just 73 votes. This year, the county has 1,053 new voters, an increase of more than 9 per cent. Hundreds of voters have already cast absentee ballots, said Registrar Kris Hicks.
--Frank Delano |
