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This Senate race not expected

October 30, 2008 12:36 am

The Senate race between former governors Mark Warner and Jim Gilmore was supposed to be a clash of the titans, a battle between two men whose fiscal policies are diametrically opposed, who occupied the Governor's Mansion back-to-back and have pointedly different views of who caused the fiscal problems in the early 2000s.

Warner, the Democrat, and Gilmore, the Republican, have pulled few punches in criticizing each other, each suggesting the other is untrustworthy with a government checkbook.

But Gilmore has had troubles since he narrowly won his party's nomination in June. Warner has raised much more money than Gilmore, which means Warner can run TV ads and Gilmore can't.

Gap in the polls

That has made it difficult for Gilmore to close a gap in the polls, which show Warner more than 20 points ahead.

Neither man wants his supporters to put much faith in those polls, however. Warner doesn't want his voters to stay home, thinking him safe.

"We've got a very strong response, but I'm not taking anything for granted," Warner said in an interview this week.

And Gilmore doesn't want his voters to be discouraged and says he feels a lot of energy on the campaign trail.

"This poll stuff is puzzling to me. I've run two statewide campaigns and I feel better about this one" than the other two, Gilmore said this week. "I'm very happy with the campaign. I've been to 100 cities and counties in the last six weeks. I know how things are going; I'm feeling it out there."

Voters definitely have a choice between different records and priorities in the two men.

Car tax cited

Gilmore, who was governor from 1998 to 2002, repeatedly mentions his efforts to cut taxes as governor--most notably the car tax, which led eventually to a fight between Gilmore and Republicans in the state Senate as the economy soured in 2001. He has made domestic oil drilling a central piece of his campaign, and adamantly opposes the financial bailout package recently passed by Congress.

"The issues are the primary advantage that we have in this race. It's clear that Mark Warner has a lot of money, and there are a lot of very liberal people across the country that think they can grab a Virginia seat," Gilmore said. "He's wrong on the issues. I think the issues are with us."

Warner, who followed Gilmore as governor, says Gilmore used budget gimmicks to disguise a looming budget imbalance that Warner was left to fix with a tax increase, a charge Gilmore vehemently denies.

Warner, too, talks about oil and alternative energy sources, supports the bailout package, and talks frequently about working across party lines to find solutions in Washington.

He said this week that his talk about "radical centrists" might have been "a good tag line" early in the campaign, but that given the recession now, "it's absolutely critical.

"People want somebody who can find solutions," Warner added.

Price drops, issues shift

The issues in the Senate race have indeed shifted, as gas prices--which seemed to be foremost on voters' minds in August, when it cost $4 a gallon or more--have dropped.

Both candidates say a shift in energy policy is still important; Warner says it would be a major mistake to let the momentum behind calls for new alternative energy to fall by the wayside just because people can afford to put gas in their cars again.

And Gilmore just this week signed an "energy freedom pledge" that commits him to opposing any effort to block domestic oil drilling offshore.

"We've got to drill for oil, just got to do that and we've got to do it now, and announce that we're going to do it now and mean it," Gilmore said. "And if you do that you're going to bring prices down in Fredericksburg."

Gilmore has also sought to tie Warner to Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama and to Democratic Senate leaders. If Warner is elected, Virginia will have two Democratic senators for the first time in decades.

Both men acknowledge the economy has been a late-blooming issue that has affected their campaigns.

"The race now has been almost overpowered by the bailout issues on Wall Street," Gilmore said. "I was opposed to the bailout. Mark Warner supported the bailout."

It's the economy

Warner says the economy "trumps everything." In a speech last week at a rally for presidential candidate Barack Obama in Richmond, he also said the recession dovetails with his experience as governor.

"I've had some experience five, six years ago helping dig Virginia out of a fiscal ditch," Warner said "Little did I know that experience digging Virginia out of a fiscal ditch might be the best experience to be the United States Senator."

It is clear Gilmore has an uphill battle against Warner. A Mason-Dixon poll last week gave Warner 58 percent to Gilmore's 33 percent, according to the Times-Dispatch. And the latest financial reports show Warner raised $3 million in the last quarter--$12 million in the campaign overall--and had $3.6 million cash on hand left for the homestretch.

Gilmore raised about $644,000 in this quarter and has $121,000 cash on hand left. A second committee, the Gilmore Victory Committee, raised an additional $265,000 and had $45,500 cash on hand left. That committee can raise money for both Gilmore and other Republican committees.

Gilmore, however, says he's not out yet.

After his very close nomination, "I really wondered whether the party could even mount a campaign," he said. "It was very splintered and Mark Warner had worked very hard to splinter the party."

But, he says, the party has rallied and is working hard for him. "I am satisfied with the party. I am happy with the party. The party leadership has rallied everywhere. Are we going to get everybody? No. But I am really happy with the way the party has come forward," Gilmore said.

Chelyen Davis: 804/782-9362
Email: cdavis@freelancestar.com