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Returns may give early hints

What to watch for election night

Date published: 11/3/2008

BY CHELYEN DAVIS

RICHMOND--

So finally, it's almost over. After months of campaigns, television ads, rallies, conventions and endless news stories, the presidential election will--if all goes well--be decided tomorrow night.

So what should you, watching returns come in at home or at an election party, be looking for? What states are going to tip this thing one way or the other?

Some East Coast states could give early signals, said University of Virginia political analyst Larry Sabato.

"If Pennsylvania should fall to [Republican John] McCain, then we're in for a long night," Sabato said.

If McCain wins Pennsylvania and its 21 electoral votes, it doesn't mean McCain wins the presidency, Sabato said. But it does mean Democrat Barack Obama will need Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico and Iowa to make up for it, and probably Virginia, to get a few votes ahead.

Jerry Kilgore, a state co-chairman for McCain, gives Pennsylvania a little more weight.

"If John McCain wins Pennsylvania, the race is over," Kilgore said. "It just can't be caught at that point. I think if Pennsylvania goes for McCain, he wins it."

And then there's Florida.

"If Florida is moving to Obama, we're all going to go to bed early," Sabato said. "There is no possible way, none, for McCain to win without Florida. There is zero chance of his winning."

Florida has 27 electoral votes, which would be hard to make up.

Another bellwether? Potentially, Indiana.

"If Indiana is real close, it's a strong indication that Obama will win the election," Sabato said. "It's normally a heavy Republican state."

Virginia, despite all the in-state excitement about it finally being a presidential toss-up state for the first time in 44 years, is not an absolute make-or-break state like some others.

Instead, Sabato said, Virginia is "an indicator.

"Virginia is a medium-size state that McCain can ill afford to lose. If he loses them, it suggests that Obama will be the winner. [But] it's not the automatic indicator that Florida is," Sabato said. "If McCain should win Virginia, it's an indication that the electoral college may be much closer than expected. That McCain may be winning in places like North Carolina and Georgia, which has become very close, Indiana."


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The Free Lance-Star will provide complete next-day coverage of tomorrow's presidential and congressional elections, but our Web site and radio station will offer continuous updates as events unfold. Here's how you can stay on top of the news as it happens:

WFLS-93.3 FM

Reporters will provide the latest from the polls beginning around 6 tomorrow morning. Tune in for election results starting at 8 p.m.

FREDERICKSBURG.COM Beginning at 7 a.m., look for news updates, live blogging and photos from the polls

Starting in the afternoon, view videos of your neighbors from polling places as they explain their choices on Election Day, and listen to audio of area residents sounding off. And you can share your own experiences at the voting booth and thoughts on the election in FredTalk, the site's discussion forum. After the polls close, the site will provide continuous updates on local, state and national results, as well as a new interactive map of Virginia, with each locality turning blue or red as real-time returns filter in. As a bonus, Free Lance-Star editorial cartoonist Clay Jones will live blog the results through his drawings.



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Date published: 11/3/2008


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McSame (posted by BLK , Nov. 3, 2008 11:54 pm)   
Does agree with Obama on this subject,so much so that a few days after Obama made that statement about greenhouse emissions.McSame made the Same statement. Word for word. Obama 2008

that is not what he said (posted by grumpy , Nov. 3, 2008 4:58 pm)   
Obama said the cost of greenhouse emissions on a coal plant that did not use clean burning coal technology would pay so much in greenhouse gas taxes that it would go bankrupt. The point was made in the context of using regulation to get US industries to keep pace with new technologies. The only way coal is likely to be feasible is if we embrace those technologies. I cannot help but believe that McCain agrees with this very principle.

Obama's Welfare America (posted by KL , Nov. 3, 2008 3:04 pm)   
Obama said on Jan. of 08 in an interview w/ San Francisco Radio that he is basically planning to bankrupt the coal industry. It seems that he talks pretty straight what his plans are in SF. 50% of american energy is generated by coal. Bankrupting coal industry will drive up the energy cost so high that oil crisis this summer seems like nothing. Prez wanna be talking about bankrupting US industry? Liberal media all said they still dont know who Obama is. Is this the CHANGE HE WANT or the CHANGE WE NEED!

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