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Returns may give early hints

November 3, 2008 12:36 am

BY CHELYEN DAVIS

RICHMOND--

So what should you, watching returns come in at home or at an election party, be looking for? What states are going to tip this thing one way or the other?

Some East Coast states could give early signals, said University of Virginia political analyst Larry Sabato.

"If Pennsylvania should fall to [Republican John] McCain, then we're in for a long night," Sabato said.

If McCain wins Pennsylvania and its 21 electoral votes, it doesn't mean McCain wins the presidency, Sabato said. But it does mean Democrat Barack Obama will need Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico and Iowa to make up for it, and probably Virginia, to get a few votes ahead.

Jerry Kilgore, a state co-chairman for McCain, gives Pennsylvania a little more weight.

"If John McCain wins Pennsylvania, the race is over," Kilgore said. "It just can't be caught at that point. I think if Pennsylvania goes for McCain, he wins it."

And then there's Florida.

"If Florida is moving to Obama, we're all going to go to bed early," Sabato said. "There is no possible way, none, for McCain to win without Florida. There is zero chance of his winning."

Florida has 27 electoral votes, which would be hard to make up.

Another bellwether? Potentially, Indiana.

"If Indiana is real close, it's a strong indication that Obama will win the election," Sabato said. "It's normally a heavy Republican state."

Virginia, despite all the in-state excitement about it finally being a presidential toss-up state for the first time in 44 years, is not an absolute make-or-break state like some others.

Instead, Sabato said, Virginia is "an indicator.

"Virginia is a medium-size state that McCain can ill afford to lose. If he loses them, it suggests that Obama will be the winner. [But] it's not the automatic indicator that Florida is," Sabato said. "If McCain should win Virginia, it's an indication that the electoral college may be much closer than expected. That McCain may be winning in places like North Carolina and Georgia, which has become very close, Indiana."

Gov. Tim Kaine, a national co-chairman for Obama, agrees that Virginia is more of an indicator of how other states will go than a winner in itself.

The Obama campaign, Kaine said, believes that "if they win Virginia, then McCain just doesn't have a path to get to 270," the magic number of electoral votes needed to win the presidency. "You can do without Ohio and Florida if you can get Virginia plus one or two other smaller states. If you get Virginia plus one of those, that's usually enough to get you to 270."

If you're really into watching results come in and want to know how Virginia is leaning after the polls close, there are three localities to watch closely: Prince Wil-liam and Loudoun counties, and the city of Virginia Beach.

Prince William and Lou-doun counties are places where Obama doesn't have to win, but he "certainly can't afford to be blown away," Sabato said. "If he's carrying them, that's a good indication he'll end up winning Virginia by some margin."

Virginia Beach is a place where Obama wouldn't normally be expected to win, Sabato said, but if he's keeping it close--say, 46, 47 percent--then it's likely he'll win Virginia.

Chelyen Davis: 804/782-9362
Email: cdavis@freelancestar.com