|
- |
BY BILL FREEHLING
A common school of thought in the Fredericksburg-area real estate market is that the farther south you proceed on Interstate 95, the cheaper the houses get.
That remains true to a certain extent, but this year's housing slump has almost erased the gap between housing prices in Stafford and Spotsylvania counties.
The median sales price last month for a house in Stafford was just $159 higher than the median in Spotsylvania, the lowest difference since at least January 2000.
Much of the Fredericksburg-area work force commutes to Washington, and as a result many are willing to pay higher prices to live closer to D.C. That preference showed up in the housing market during the boom years of 2005 through 2007, according to data from Metropolitan Regional Information Systems Inc.
The median sales price in Stafford was at least $50,000 higher than in Spotsylvania in 32 of the 36 months during that period. In April 2006, the Stafford median was $91,950 higher--the highest gap this decade.
While Stafford houses have remained pricier than Spotsylvania's this year, the difference is sharply lower. The difference in the sales median has been $25,000 or less for each of the past four months, and it was $8,525 in October. Last month's $159 gap was only the second time since 2000 that it's been less than $1,000.
Area Realtors point to Prince William County, directly to Stafford's north, as the main culprit for the trend. Foreclosures have hit Prince William harder than perhaps any other county in Virginia. Median sales prices there dropped 51.4 percent between November 2006 and last month.
Suzy Stone, a Realtor with Century 21 AdVenture in Spotsylvania and 2007 president of the Fredericksburg Area Association of Realtors, said the lessening gap is "a direct correlation between how much prices dropped north of Stafford."
Because of the area's commuter culture, housing prices are based partly on levels to the north. So when prices in Prince William dropped, Stafford went along with them to remain competitive. Stafford's median sales price dropped 41.7 percent between November 2006 and last month, while Spotsylvania's dropped a relatively modest 26 percent.
John McClain, who studies regional housing trends as deputy director of George Mason University's Center for Regional Analysis, said the sharper drops in Stafford are somewhat surprising.
McClain said that in most of Northern Virginia, prices have been more sustainable closer to Washington while falling more in outer counties. McClain said possible factors behind the local trend are Stafford's faster ramp-up in the boom years and higher foreclosure rate.
The gap between Spotsylvania and its neighbor to the south--Caroline County--has remained fairly steady for the past few years. The Spotsylvania sales median was $27,391 above Caroline's last month, comparable to where it was in the two prior Novembers.
In the longer term as the market recovers, Stone said, prices in Stafford will probably again outpace Spotsylvania's because of its proximity to Washington. New jobs coming to the Quantico Marine Corps Base in the next few years should also help with demand, especially now that prices have fallen.
But Stone doesn't see the $50,000-plus gaps between the two counties coming back anytime soon.
"It's probably going to stay fairly close for a while," Stone said.
For monthly price data in Stafford and Spotsylvania back to January 2000, go to Fredericksburg.com/blogs/bizbrowser.
Bill Freehling: 540/374-5405
Email: bfreehling@freelancestar.com
* Median is the middle price. For example, if 11 homes were sold, the median would be the price of the sixth-most- expensive home (the middle one). We use this figure because extremely expensive or inexpensive homes can skew averages. The average sales price tends to be higher than the median. --Metropolitan Regional Information Systems Inc. |
