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Last year, the Old Dominion became a key swing state in the presidential election. This year, its governor's race is the talk of the political world.
We've come a long way from the days when Virginia was a political afterthought--a cinch victory for conservatives.
Metaphors for the 2009 race for governor will be plentiful. There's that tortoise-and-the-hare theme to the Democratic primary, which saw state Sen. R. Creigh Deeds slowly but steadily work his way to an upset rout over two better-financed opponents who got off to faster starts.
There's that delicate balance being pursued by Republican nominee Bob McDonnell--moderate enough to attract the political center, but conservative enough to rev up the GOP troops.
All that will be played out in front of a national press corps that has deemed the Virginia governor's race (one of only two in the country this year) as the principal electoral yardstick for gauging how Barack Obama is faring after a year in office.
There will be a bipartisan focus on jobs, but also substantive differences between the candidates. Deeds supported a tax increase for transportation needs, which McDonnell will label as evidence of yet another tax-and-spend liberal.
McDonnell came out against some federal stimulus money for unemployment that he thought would have created a new, long-term liability for the state. Deeds will criticize him for being insensitive to the needy.
But as in most political campaigns these days, personality and style will be key, and perhaps deciding, factors in determining this rerun of the 2005 attorney general's race, which McDonnell won by a little more than 300 votes.
The former attorney general is clearly the more polished speaker. That's why you may be seeing more footage of the down-home Deeds in McDonnell TV ads in Northern Virginia than in Deeds' own ads.
Call it the "Jerry Kilgore factor." Will Northern Virginia feel comfortable with a candidate such as Deeds, when voters hear how his accent approaches the Southwest Virginia twang of Kilgore, the defeated GOP nominee for governor in 2005?
There's also the authenticity factor. Will Deeds' folksiness help him sound genuine, true to his roots? And will McDonnell run the risk of sounding evasive and insincere as he attempts to downplay such non-moderate issues as his ties to TV evangelist Pat Robertson?
The good news for voters is that the forecast is for a highly competitive race that could go either way. That means the next four months are a critical time for Virginians to pay attention to the race, do their homework and cast
Ed Jones: 540/374-5401
Email: edjones@freelancestar.com