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By RUSTY DENNEN
So far, 2009 has been a year of extremes when it comes to rainfall in the Fredericksburg area.
In January, February and March it was excessively dry, followed by an abnormally wet June. Then the pendulum swung back to much drier in July, with August wetter than normal.
The alternating pattern continued in September with a drier-than-normal month and only a trace or rain so far in October.
The net effect of the roller-coaster weather patterns is a rain deficit of nearly two inches for the year to date.
As of 7 a.m. yesterday, 29.73 inches had fallen, according to the Fredericksburg Wastewater Treatment Plant. The area normally gets about 31.57 inches through September.
A cold front was forecast to bring temporary relief with storms and showers last night, lingering into this morning. Dry weather is expected to return tomorrow and last into the week.
In recent weeks, the Rappahannock River's flow upstream from Fredericksburg has slowed significantly, exposing rock gardens. Conditions yesterday were not ideal for this weekend's Great Rappahannock Whitewater Canoe Race.
Some area reservoirs, full to the brim in the spring, are drawing down.
Harry Critzer, Stafford County's utilities director, said Smith Lake is down 37 inches and Abel Lake is down 32 inches.
"It's pretty typical" for this time of year, he said. "Still, it's a little lower than we'd like to see them."
Winter rain and snow usually recharge them. "Hopefully, by July they'll be full again," Critzer said.
Drenching tropical storms often hit the East Coast in the late summer and early fall. But this year has been quiet, though there's still more than a month and a half left before the Atlantic hurricane season ends Nov. 30.
John Miller, director of resource protection for the Virginia Department of Forestry, says there's still an ongoing drought in parts of the state, with rainfall deficits from four to 10 inches in places.
The danger of wildfires, he says, is low at the moment despite the recent dry spell.
"If you look out the window, you still see grass and green leaves. That's significant. It means that everything out there is pretty resistant to fire."
But if the dry conditions continue as the first frost approaches and leaves fall, "all kinds of fuel is readily available to burn," Miller said.
"October is that transition month," he said.
The area is faring better than other spots across the nation.
About 15 percent of the country is in moderate to exceptional drought, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor. The parched conditions intensified last month in the Upper Midwest and eastern Carolinas and remained entrenched in much of the West.
The National Weather Service long-range outlook calls for an equal chance
Rusty Dennen: 540/374-5431
Email: rdennen@freelancestar.com
