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Date published: 10/15/2009
I have come to expect half-truths and exaggerations in articles concerning the environment published by this newspaper. The recent editorial regarding population growth and the environment was no exception ["Our 'popular' problem," Sept. 21].
If the writer had Googled "world population projection," the first result would have been the U.N.'s "World Population to 2300" document. This document projects world population to increase to about 9 billion in 50 years, not 12 billion or more, as the editorial writer suggests. After 2070, world population will begin declining from its 9 billion maximum. The biggest problem in the last half of this century will be depopulation, not the environment. The fertility rate (average births per woman) must be greater than 2.1 to replace those who die. It is already around 1.3 in Russia, Eastern Europe, and Japan. It is around 1.5 in Western Europe. Mexico, which we consider a developing nation, is near 2.1. Russia is already losing more than 500,000 people a year. Italy's population is projected to decrease from 57 million in 2000 to 34 million in 2100. China is projected to lose 213 million people between 2050 and 2100. Depopulation will lead to collapse of real estate prices and related industries as houses and offices sit vacant. Consumer spending and GDP will be depressed. The cost of health care and pensions will soar as the ratio of elderly to young increases. Depopulation will place large financial and personal burdens on the young. Europe may choose to greatly increase immigration to avoid an economic calamity, but this will change their cultures forever. The U.S. is lucky. Our population will continue to grow because of immigration. Frank Petranka Stafford
Petranka is correct that “depopulation” will be painful. His advocating more growth shows he thinks human activities are independent of Earth’s resources. Even from an anthropocentric point of view indifferent to the loss of nature, can Petranka genuinely be unaware that the many environmental catastrophes we are brewing, in addition to the depletion of the oil that fuels our activities, spell the end to the human “party” of the last century?
Madeline Weld
President, Population Institute of Canada
Population changes are going to change the globe. China is not alarmed at losing population and should not be. Italy and some smaller nations face real cultural challenges but those changes are not new to Europe. We are lucky that most of our immigrants are culturally like us. Not needing to build houses may free people to do other just as useful things. Nations losing wealth associated with population growth is not the same as the people getting poorer although it raises national defense issues
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