If the writer had Googled "world population projection," the first result would have been the U.N.'s "World Population to 2300" document.
This document projects world population to increase to about 9 billion in 50 years, not 12 billion or more, as the editorial writer suggests. After 2070, world population will begin declining from its 9 billion maximum. The biggest problem in the last half of this century will be depopulation, not the environment.
The fertility rate (average births per woman) must be greater than 2.1 to replace those who die. It is already around 1.3 in Russia, Eastern Europe, and Japan. It is around 1.5 in Western Europe. Mexico, which we consider a developing nation, is near 2.1.
Russia is already losing more than 500,000 people a year. Italy's population is projected to decrease from 57 million in 2000 to 34 million in 2100. China is projected to lose 213 million people between 2050 and 2100.
Depopulation will lead to collapse of real estate prices and related industries as houses and offices sit vacant. Consumer spending and GDP will be depressed. The cost of health care and pensions will soar as the ratio of elderly to young increases.
Depopulation will place large financial and personal burdens on the young. Europe may choose to greatly increase immigration to avoid an economic calamity, but this will change their cultures forever.
The U.S. is lucky. Our population will continue to grow because of immigration.
Frank Petranka
Stafford