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Republican Bob McDonnell (right) started
Democrat Creigh Deeds campaigned in
Deeds gestures as he accepts the
President Obama embraces Deeds
Sheila Johnson, co-founder of Black Entertainment Television, backs McDonnell.
McDonnell makes his acceptance speech |
With just over a week left in the governor's race, voters can expect to see a lot of TV ads--including negative ones--and a big push, especially from Democrats, for them to actually go to the polls.
What they're not likely to see is a game-changing moment, an "October surprise," from either side.
Ahead in all polls, Republican Bob McDonnell seemingly doesn't need to do much except coast. It's Democrat Creigh Deeds, running behind, who has just days left to woo voters.
Virginians can expect an increased number of phone calls over the next week urging them to get to the polls next Tuesday, and a last-minute rush of television advertising.
For Deeds, a big part of that effort is President Obama, who's holding a rally with Deeds on Tuesday, one week before the election. Obama is also in ads Deeds is running, and has sent at least one e-mail to supporters urging them "get fired up" for Deeds.
It's the people who voted for Obama last year that Deeds needs, and polls show some of those key voter blocs aren't committed to coming out on Nov. 3.
"It seems to me Obama is about the only figure out there who can really energize those voters," said George Mason University political analyst Stephen Farnsworth. "Deeds certainly hasn't been capable of creating an enthusiastic following himself, at least among the young voters and the African-American voters. Deeds needs the Obama voters, Deeds needs the late deciders, and Obama is very useful for both of those groups."
While Deeds' campaign is enthusiastic about Obama's visit and participation in the race, Farnsworth noted that Deeds himself has been less clear about supporting Obama's policies. Cases in point: Deeds' ambiguity in a debate last week over the public-option portion of health care reform, and his rejection of the federal "cap-and-trade" bill that would create stricter emissions regulations.
Tying himself to Obama as much as possible doesn't really have a downside for Deeds this late in the race; sure, it might reinforce McDonnell's argument that Deeds is aligned with unpopular national Democrats and their policies, but at this point Deeds needs to convince his supporters to vote.
"I don't think Deeds gains any votes by distancing himself from Obama," Farnsworth said. "Obama helps more than hurts."
To help tie Obama's visit to get-out-the-vote efforts, the Deeds campaign is offering tickets to the Obama rally to volunteers who agree to help canvass voters or work phone banks this weekend.
Christopher Newport University political analyst Quentin Kidd thinks Obama's willingness to come to Virginia and expend political capital on Deeds is a positive sign for Democrats.
That's because while McDonnell is consistently ahead in polls, he hasn't been consistently above 50 percent. An average of polls at Pollster.com puts him right around 50 percent. In polls done since Sept. 1, McDonnell has been above 50 percent more often than he has been below.
To Kidd, who last week did his own poll, which put McDonnell at 45 percent, there's a potential opening for Deeds to sway more voters, if he can take advantage of it.
"It wouldn't make sense for Obama to waste his time if there was a consistent 51-plus for McDonnell," Kidd said. "There's still an opening, there's still a lot of hesitation among voters about McDonnell that the Deeds campaign can capture. It's just increasingly too late to capture it; they've got a lot of work to do."
That work involves solidifying Deeds' base and winning over independents.
Kidd thinks Deeds' focus on McDonnell's grad-school thesis--in which McDonnell wrote that working women and gays were detrimental to the traditional family--has worked to some extent, pulling some women voters away from McDonnell, but it hasn't necessarily pulled all those voters into Deeds' camp.
By this point, Kidd said, people who can be swayed by the thesis have been.
He expects to see McDonnell focusing mostly on a positive message in these last days--an easy call for the candidate who's ahead.
"If I were McDonnell I would ignore the thesis totally, 100 percent, and I would go hard on the message that he spent all summer on, which is 'I'm going to be a jobs governor,'" Kidd said.
Farnsworth said McDonnell just has to run out the clock.
"You have to take some shots here and there, but don't make any mistakes, limit the risk," he said. "When you're sitting on a lead, the way to lose it is to do something really unpredictable, do something reckless. It seems to me that the McDonnell campaign cannot, at least so far, be accused of being reckless about anything."
For Deeds, the end-game strategy is more complicated. He can go negative, which will turn off some voters; go all-positive, which won't necessarily sway new supporters; or do a bit of both.
A bit of both is where he has been lately, and the pundits think he'll stay there to the end.
"McDonnell gets to stay positive. Deeds is stuck," Kidd said. "He could go positive 100 percent, but it's a little bit late for that and he probably needs to suppress McDonnell's turnout as much as he can."
It's unlikely that either campaign will change its message in the last week of the campaign.
In a conference call with reporters last week, Deeds campaign consultant Mo Elleithee talked about "some new energy" in the final weeks, spurred partly by campaign rallies by Obama and former president Bill Clinton, but said there wouldn't be "a single defining moment or game-changer."
"Every day we've got to win the battle between now and Election Day," Elleithee said. "Frankly, that's how most campaigns are won."
The election is Nov. 3.
Chelyen Davis: 540/368-5028
Email: cdavis@freelancestar.com
