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Forget Iran's nukes: Fight Taliban & Co.

America's foreign policy dealings with Afghanistan and Iran, by Ranjit Singh, professor of political science and international affairs at UMW.

Date published: 11/1/2009

AMERICA TODAY is a super- power Goldilocks, seek- ing security strategies that are neither too hard nor too soft. Thankfully, this status is returning us to the old-fashioned notion of containing enemies instead of reflexive war-making. But we need to re-examine our fears as we craft "just right" policies for hostile regions.

Take Iran's nuclear program. Let's not hype the threat--doesn't every discussion about Iran uncritically assume grave danger to the U.S., and then start ratcheting upward?

Americans think of Iran and picture Mahmoud Ahmedinejad. Ahmedinejad's lies about the Holocaust and repeated threats to Israel are bluster from a man with limited powers and waning authority. His rants cheer a beleaguered political base that no doubt loves to watch him yank Uncle Sam's beard. But is this the type of aggression upon which our Iran policy should be based?

Unquestionably, Iran is responsible for terrorist acts, often in association with regional allies. However, it does not threaten U.S. soil or advance a fanatical global agenda like al-Qaida. Its actions stem from well-trod regional conflicts and grievances, and have been similarly circumscribed. This is not a political regime that we like, but it is a predictable one, with local ambitions.

Indeed, Iran's nuclear program fits conventional understandings of how insecure states act. The country has been invaded or occupied three times in the last century. Its neighbors Russia, India, and Pakistan are feuding and frighteningly nuclearized. U.S. forces now surround Iran from the Gulf waters through Iraq, Turkey, Central Asia, and Afghanistan. The American president who declared Iran "evil" in 2002--before Ahmedinejad was even mayor of Tehran--attacked its non-nuclear "evil" neighbor Iraq (which invaded Iran in 1980).

DESIRE FOR NUKES

Patriotic Iranians therefore need not be wild-eyed Holocaust-deniers to feel insecure. It would be irrational not to want nukes. Both Ahmedinejad's allies and democratic critics have lauded the nuclear program, which symbolizes national security, sovereignty, and pride more than the political fortunes of one bombastic thug. A determined country with know-how and resources probably cannot be denied a nuclear weapon. Even skin-and-bone North Korea has the bomb.

Ranjit Singh teaches political science and international affairs at the University of Mary Washington. He served as a foreign observer at the August 2009 presidential and provincial elections in Afghanistan.

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Date published: 11/1/2009