IN THE STILLNESS of a dark, cold night, the distant barking of a single dog can be jarring. So, too, in this off-off election year, a handful of races delivered a message loud and clear: Don't get cocky, Democrats--Republicans are on the move.
In a stunning turnaround, GOP candidates not only took all three top state jobs in the Old Dominion by double-digit margins, but also won the gubernatorial election in New Jersey. The numbers behind the numbers tell the story: In both states, suburban voters, who had leaned left in the 2008 presidential election, "righted" themselves, as did independents.
Republican Bob McDonnell, who ran against both Democrat Creigh Deeds and The Washington Post in Northern Virginia, captured Fairfax, Loudoun, and Prince William counties, all of which Barack Obama last year won. Mr. McDonnell's statewide margin (58.6 percent of the vote versus Mr. Deeds' 41.2 percent) includes big leads in all but the most liberal pockets of the electorate--e.g., Alexandria, Arlington, and Charlottesville. He lost in Fredericksburg, 48-50, but won handily in all of the surrounding counties.
Likewise in New Jersey, where Republican Chris Christie defeated incumbent Democrat Jon Corzine, tax-plastered suburbs moved heavily toward the GOP.
Nearly a third of Virginia and New Jersey voters polled called themselves independents. Solidly Democratic in the 2006 and 2008 elections, these voters on Tuesday shifted allegiance, preferring Mr. McDonnell 2-to-1 over Mr. Deeds, and Mr. Christie over Mr. Corzine likewise. Exit polls revealed, unsurprisingly, that economic issues weighed heaviest on voters' minds.
THE NATIONAL SCENE
Looking at the numbers, Democratic pollster Pat Caddell extrapolates to the national scene. He says that from the 1996 election onward, affluent counties in the East, Midwest, and West have trended Democratic, in part because of antipathy toward religious and cultural conservatives. Now, however, with economic issues taking center stage, there's a reversal of that trend.
And that just may be the takeaway for the Republican Party. In Virginia, Mr. McDonnell ran a classic campaign, focusing on jobs, the economy, and transportation--issues of clear and present concern to virtually every Virginian. Every few days, McDonnell press releases would outline a new plan--to fix transportation, create jobs, improve education he had a plan for just about everything but walking Virginians' dogs.
His campaign strategy communicated that he is a man seeking solutions, a man of action--and a man with self-discipline. When Mr. Deeds (and his communications arm, The Washington Post) rolled out Mr. McDonnell's 20-year-old thesis and "unmasked" his (well-known) social conservatism, the Republican never blinked. He responded with a long press conference explaining his views, followed by ads featuring his accomplished wife and daughters to counter the "anti-woman" assertions of his opponent. (Incidentally, the mass influx of women into the formal work force has not had entirely beneficial effects, as peer-raised children, the enfeeblement of feminine civil society, and suppressed wages demonstrate.) Then he returned to his agenda. Mr. McDonnell's measured response stood in stark contrast to Mr. Deeds, whose thesis fixation soon caused his campaign to overrun its headlights, crash, and burn.
Republicans everywhere could do worse than to follow Mr. McDonnell's Road Map to Victory: It is possible to stay true to one's social conservatism without making that the sum and substance of a campaign. Voters are looking for fiscal restraint and positive problem solving, along with strong, principled leadership. Mr. McDonnell seemed the more credible avatar of those virtues.
What does this portend for the 2010 congressional elections? It's dangerous to read too much into a single November day, but certainly Congress members from centrist or conservative districts--such as freshmen Glenn Nye of Virginia Beach and Tom Piriello, who represents Bedford and Danville as well as Charlottesville--should take heed. Ill-considered votes for expensive government programs could, like that far-off dog in the night, come growling around their back doors.