The Fredericksburg and Northern Neck areas had the two highest growth rates in Virginia for housing sales in 2009, but also among the sharpest price drops.
There were 4,167 homes sold in the Fredericksburg area last year, a 16.1 percent increase over 2008. Sales in the Northern Neck rose 40.1 percent to 538.
None of Virginia's other 24 real estate regions experienced a better percentage rise in sales last year, according to Virginia Association of Realtors data released yesterday. Statewide, sales rose 1.6 percent in 2009.
The area's sharp rise in sales appears due in large part to the decline in prices. Median prices last year fell 17.5 percent in the Fredericksburg area and 19.2 percent in the Northern Neck, two of the three sharpest declines in Virginia. Statewide, prices fell 5.5 percent.
The median sales price in the Fredericksburg area last year was $206,121. In December, median prices rose in the area over the year-ago period for the first time in more than three years.
There were 310 homes sold through the Multiple Listing Service in the Fredericksburg area in December, up one over November. That bucked a trend nationally.
The National Association of Realtors said yesterday that December U.S. sales declined 16.7 percent from November, the largest monthly drop in more than 40 years. The report reflects a sharp drop in demand after buyers stopped scrambling to qualify for a tax credit of up to $8,000 for first-time homeowners. It had been due to expire on Nov. 30, but Congress extended the deadline until April 30 and expanded it with a new $6,500 credit for existing homeowners who move.
Some of the national decline in December could have also been related to all the snow that month, said John McClain, deputy director of George Mason University's Center for Regional Analysis, during a VAR conference call yesterday.
McClain said he thinks the housing market probably bottomed last year, and said prices have now fallen far enough to bring in buyers. He cautioned that the road to recovery could be bumpy and that it remains to be seen how the housing market fares after the April 30 tax-credit deadline passes.
Among the other comments made by Virginia Realtors on the conference call yesterday were:
Consumer confidence is the key to stabilizing the market. Many consumers who could buy, given the lower prices and competitive interest rates, aren't doing so because of fear.
One stumbling block to sales is people who refuse to adjust their prices to the new reality. When an adjustment is made, properties sell.
Higher-end housing sales aren't doing as well as lower-end ones are. A lack of inventory is a problem in the lower-end category in many parts of Virginia.
Foreclosure sales are still common in Northern Virginia, but many people are moving into the area for jobs, which should continue to help the market.
Prices dropped quickly over the past few years but probably will rise slowly off the bottom.
Bill Freehling: 540/374-5405
Email: bfreehling@freelancestar.com