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Chmura |
Economist Christine Chmura said the recession is over, although recovery will take a while.
She said national economists haven't officially declared an end date for the recession, but "the majority of economists believe [the recession] is over as of the third quarter of 2009."
Chmura was delivering an economic forecast report for the Thomas Jefferson Institute for Public Policy in a teleconference that also included business leaders and reporters. She is the president of Richmond-based Chmura Economics and Analytics, and has done economic analyses for state government and other groups.
Chmura predicted the economy will grow at a rate of 2.5 percent to 3 percent, lower than might be expected for an economy coming out of a recession. That slowness, she said, is due to "headwinds" that are slowing growth, such as the difficulty of getting credit, especially for businesses, and continued high unemployment.
"We expect that high unemployment rate to come down only slowly over the next couple of years," she said.
Chmura said the national economy lost more than 8 million jobs in the recession, and that if 200,000 jobs are created a month--a rate she thinks is reasonable--it would still take more than three years to regain those lost jobs.
"We do have these factors that are causing the economy to grow at a modest rate, rather than the strong rebound," Chmura said.
She said Virginia's economy is doing slightly better than the national economy.
Jobs in professional business services fields grew 1.4 percent in May, and those are "very good, high-paying jobs," many of which are in Northern Virginia, Chmura said. The education and health jobs sector also has expanded.
She said she expects Virginia's job base "to show tangible improvement" by the end of the year. Chmura said salary and wages should increase in the next two years, but that consumer spending is still low in most areas of Virginia.
The Thomas Jefferson Institute asks Chmura to do an economic report every year, and regularly asks her to also do a survey on a particular policy issue. This year it is transportation.
For years Virginia leaders have been wrestling with transportation funding issues. They say the state needs $1 billion a year to upgrade and maintain road systems and ease congestion, but lawmakers have been unable to agree on a way to pay for it. Two legislative special sessions failed to find solutions, and proposals to raise taxes, either statewide or in particularly congested areas such as Northern Virginia, have failed.
Chmura said public-private partnerships are one possible solution, as are tolls, HOT lanes and other ideas.
She said public transit in urban areas was not designed with the modern office park in mind, and that only in Northern Virginia is rail transit a realistic solution to congestion.
Chmura said tolls would need to be combined with increased road capacity to seriously impact Northern Virginia congestion. She suggested that governments work to encourage carpooling and telecommuting options for workers.
Chmura said transportation issues are linked to economic development, and that state leaders "need to view the transportation issue from a broader perspective."
She didn't endorse any particular transportation funding options. But Hugh Keogh, who is retiring as president of the Virginia Chamber of Commerce, said he still believes some form of increased tax is needed.
"You can't build roads for nothing," Keogh said, noting that the chamber has in the past backed some tax-increase proposals for transportation. "You need long-term sustainable significant revenues. You can't pretend that that will happen without bold leadership. There have to be pragmatic discussions, some give and take on both sides of the issue. It's time, frankly, for that to occur."
