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All of the Fredericksburg area's school divisions will grow over the next five years, according to the University of Virginia Weldon Cooper Center for Public Service.
Stafford County's system, for instance, will see a 4.7 percent increase in students by 2014-15, a little more than the state average, the recently released study states.
Fredericksburg city schools will have the largest percentage increase of students, and Spotsylvania County's division will have the smallest growth rate in the area.
The center projects that Virginia's public schools will enroll 52,268 more students in 2014-15, which is a 4.3 percent increase from this past school year. The elementary grades will absorb two-thirds of that growth.
Despite the down economy, a record 1.21 million students attended Virginia public schools in 2009-10.
Stafford Acting Superintendent Andre Nougaret said he expects most of the county's increase to be at elementary and middle schools.
"The good news is that we have some seats available," he said. "We're in a position to be able to accommodate that growth over the next five years."
The growth will put additional pressure on the budget, he said.
It would cost about $800,000 more to maintain student-teacher ratios with an increase of 100 students, Nougaret said. The state, which reduced funding for public schools this year, would cover about half that amount, he said.
"Certainly, student-teacher ratios are probably going to be a focus for us," Nougaret said. The school division this year eliminated five teaching positions through attrition.
Stafford expects to enroll 27,612 students in 2014-15. That's 305 less than the Weldon Cooper Center's projection.
"It does say to us that the growth is beginning to resume," Nougaret said.
The city of Fredericksburg's school system will grow by 15.5 percent, or 439 students, over five years, according to the center. Superintendent David Melton said state money "doesn't come close to offsetting the cost of additional students."
The city school system's enrollment increased by about 200 students this past school year, he said. Melton partly attributes the growth to parents taking their children out of private schools.
Next school year, he said, the division is adding a third-grade teacher and a high school math instructor with money saved through attrition.
Eventually, he said, the system may build an addition to a school, but he's not expecting that to happen anytime soon. "Overall, if growth is evenly spread, I think facilities-wise we're OK" for the next five years, Melton said.
Unlike other localities, Spotsylvania's school system expects to enroll 356 fewer students in 2014-15 than it did this past school year. The Weldon Cooper Center, meanwhile, is projecting an increase of 731 students--3.1 percent--in Spotsylvania by 2014-15.
Division planner Scott Worner said the school system's estimates have been more accurate than the Weldon Cooper Center's.
Still, he said, "nobody ever hits it right on the head."
"If the economy changes and people start moving back here, all bets are off," Worner said.
Jeff Branscome: 540/374-5402
Email: jbranscome@freelancestar.com
