Maximum build-out causes controversy

Stafford Comprehensive Plan figures roll with the changes

Date published: 9/4/2010

BY JONAS BEALS

A Comprehensive Plan is a guide to future growth in a locality. Some people in Stafford County think the latest proposed plan simply allows for too much growth.

One figure has caused a stir at two recent town hall meetings: the maximum build-out.

Maximum build-out is a highest-possible growth scenario. It determines how many housing units will exist if every privately owned acre of the county is developed to its highest allowable density based on the Comprehensive Plan's land-use plan. It is an improbable scenario, but figuring out the number can offer insight into the plan's overall impact on the locality.

"The biggest thing would be for evaluating future public facility needs," Stafford County planner Mike Zuraf said. "It's something you will generally see in a Comprehensive Plan. We've always had it in ours."

The current land-use plan, adopted in 2003, has a maximum build-out of 72,168 units. The proposed Comprehensive Plan was recently given a maximum build-out figure of 161,201. That number dropped to 117,248 after the density in certain areas was lowered. All three figures include 44,423 homes that already exist in the county.

It is unlikely that the county will develop to such an extent in the 20-year scope of the plan, or even over a much longer period of time, but Planning Commissioners and other elected officials have noted the usefulness of the maximum build-out concept.

"It's of some value," Supervisor Harry Crisp said, "but I don't think you can base a lot of decisions on it. It's a guide."

The Comprehensive Plan has been undergoing a revision for the past four years. A 2009 proposal--lacking high- density Urban Development Areas--had a maximum build-out figure of about 67,000 units. In that version, a significantly downsized Urban Services Area was designed to limit suburban development. Changes made since January have raised that figure, more than doubling it in some cases.

Planning Commissioners voted 6-1 Wednesday night to include the maximum build-out number in the Comprehensive Plan. They also added language to make it clear that the plan does not intend for that growth to occur in 20 years, if ever.


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BUILDING STAFFORD

Maximum build-out figures in Stafford County:

2010 proposed Comprehensive Plan at highest possible density: 161,201 units.

2010 proposed Comprehensive Plan, with Urban Development Areas growth limited by the plan: 117,289 units.

2009 proposed Comprehensive Plan: 67,000 units, with no UDAs.

2008 proposed Comprehensive Plan: 79,674 units, including UDAs.

Current Comprehensive Plan, approved in 2003: 72,168 units.

Already existing in Stafford: 44,423 units.

Approved, but not yet built, in Stafford: 7,616 units.


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Date published: 9/4/2010


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Sounds to me.... (posted by bhaas , Sep. 5, 2010 10:32 am)   
like it is time for the voters in Stafford County to "scare the bejeebers" out of their planners and BOS.

And VDOT is in on the joke 9:23 (posted by LocalTaxpayer , Sep. 5, 2010 10:29 am)   
at taxpayer expense. 161,000 houses planned and VDOT did not discuss buildout, or comment on the UDA location, or mention that they UDAs in greenfields which means more roads, or do the job that the law gives them. And to help Stafford BOS meet their artificial time limit of Fall vote VDOT accepts an incomplete plan. Wow, Stafford BOS has clout. VDOT most substantive comment:call rural suburban. Appropriate since not one inch of green will be left http://www.co.stafford.va.us/bos/sep0710/1.pdf

Stafford UDA planning is joke! (posted by imgianna , Sep. 5, 2010 9:23 am)   
There is no planning here; just a bunch of folks sitting around a table sprinkling UDA's about the County. No real criteria for how to minimize the footprint and keep the need for new infrastructure and public facilities down (and thereby save taxppayer dollars for operating and maintaining same). The result is a developer's dream and large-scale urban sprawl that will impact Stafford taxpayers far into the future! The state mandate for UDA's without any implementation guidelines is a travesty.

Bosss Hoggg don't give no (posted by Amazigh , Sep. 5, 2010 8:14 am)   
nevermind bout no adquate facilties, no Suh, not when therahs money invoved.

developers are not ENTITLED to rezonings. and while (posted by larryg , Sep. 4, 2010 5:57 pm)   
it's true they cannot be denied a rezone because of inadequate infrastructure - they are not necessarily entitled to a rezone because they have proposed it either. There are LOTS of ways to turn down a rezone without citing a general lack of infrastructure as the reason. But if you county is bound and determine to approve rezonings anyhow.. without requiring adequate mitigation then that's a problem between the BOS and the folks who elect them. Ask the citizens of Facquier about turning down rezonings...

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