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Maximum build-out causes controversy

September 4, 2010 12:35 am

BY JONAS BEALS

A Comprehensive Plan is a guide to future growth in a locality. Some people in Stafford County think the latest proposed plan simply allows for too much growth.

One figure has caused a stir at two recent town hall meetings: the maximum build-out.

Maximum build-out is a highest-possible growth scenario. It determines how many housing units will exist if every privately owned acre of the county is developed to its highest allowable density based on the Comprehensive Plan's land-use plan. It is an improbable scenario, but figuring out the number can offer insight into the plan's overall impact on the locality.

"The biggest thing would be for evaluating future public facility needs," Stafford County planner Mike Zuraf said. "It's something you will generally see in a Comprehensive Plan. We've always had it in ours."

The current land-use plan, adopted in 2003, has a maximum build-out of 72,168 units. The proposed Comprehensive Plan was recently given a maximum build-out figure of 161,201. That number dropped to 117,248 after the density in certain areas was lowered. All three figures include 44,423 homes that already exist in the county.

It is unlikely that the county will develop to such an extent in the 20-year scope of the plan, or even over a much longer period of time, but Planning Commissioners and other elected officials have noted the usefulness of the maximum build-out concept.

"It's of some value," Supervisor Harry Crisp said, "but I don't think you can base a lot of decisions on it. It's a guide."

The Comprehensive Plan has been undergoing a revision for the past four years. A 2009 proposal--lacking high- density Urban Development Areas--had a maximum build-out figure of about 67,000 units. In that version, a significantly downsized Urban Services Area was designed to limit suburban development. Changes made since January have raised that figure, more than doubling it in some cases.

Planning Commissioners voted 6-1 Wednesday night to include the maximum build-out number in the Comprehensive Plan. They also added language to make it clear that the plan does not intend for that growth to occur in 20 years, if ever.

"It's a figure we probably need to see," Planning Commissioner Holly Hazard said. "Is that the driving figure for making decisions? It's part of it, but to me, it's not one that's ever going to happen."

Actual growth in a county is subject to real-world economic and environmental factors that are not taken into account with the maximum build-out calculation. While maximum build-out figures are by no means an accurate prediction of growth, they can vary as the land-use map changes, and can be a broad indication of the direction the county is headed when it comes to growth.

"It's a mathematical extrapolation of what the zoning of all the land you've got in the county is," Planning Commissioner Pete Fields said. "Because it is simply a mathematical number, it's the only way to compare different versions of a plan."

The proposed plan's maximum build-out is significantly higher than the current plan. That is due, in part, to state-mandated high-density Urban Development Areas. But it is also more generalized in terms of land use, with a larger urban services area supporting more suburban development in the center of the county.

The specifics of the Comprehensive Plan are still being discussed, and the public will have at least two public hearings to provide input. As of now, those hearings are scheduled for October and November.

Until the Comprehensive Plan is approved, the maximum build-out figure will be in flux.

"It's going to be shifting as we continue through the process," Zuraf said.

Jonas Beals: 540/368-5036
Email: jbeals@freelancestar.com