Ice and rain forecast

Tonight's ice (left) and then rainfall (right) forecasts thru Wed. morning

A wintry mix is likely Sunday night in and around Fredericksburg.

High pressure overhead northern Virginia kept skies clear and winds calm overnight, allowing Fredericksburg area temperatures to sag into the upper teens by dawn this – Sunday – morning. Under mostly sunny skies for the first half of today temperatures will rebound to the low 40s with light winds. But then conditions go downhill rapidly for the next 48 hours or so.

That same high pressure will slide off the coast this afternoon and the clockwise flow of air around it will swap the upper level winds around from the southwest. That will bring Gulf of Mexico moisture into Fredericksburg and vicinity just as an upper level disturbance approaches from the same direction. The combination will mean that clouds will begin to lower and thicken by mid-afternoon with precipitation breaking out this evening after the dinner hour.

Precipitation falling into the very dry air currently in the Fredericksburg area will help drop surface temperatures through evaporative cooling. That will aid in the precipitation arriving as a wintry mix of sleet, snow, and freezing rain. At the moment Winter Weather Advisories are in place for areas along and west of the U.S. Route 29 corridor but not in the ‘Burg. That could change so stay tuned to any updated forecasts later today.

Any snow amounts in Fredericksburg would be less than an inch but the chief concern is for sleet and freezing rain accumulation that could render roads and sidewalks slippery. The left graphic panel shows the expected ice totals remaining west of the ‘Burg but that line isn’t far away. If temperatures are a smidgeon lower (technical term) more frozen stuff could fall across this area as well.

By Monday morning Fredericksburg will be dealing with a chilly rain as temperatures top out in the upper 30s. After a brief lull in the precipitation the main action arrives tomorrow evening as a developing storm system pushes into the Midwest. The right graphic panel shows total liquid rain amounts expected before it all ends Tuesday night, with Fredericksburg firmly in the inch and half region. That could mean local flooding issues late Tuesday into Wednesday morning.

Enjoy the sunshine early today and keep tuned to local forecasts later today. Either way it looks like the start of the work week will be umbrella weather.

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